股市即将变盘的逻辑，财富洗牌的前夜

Core Viewpoint - The stock market began a downward trend starting November 14, triggered by the release of disappointing financial data for October on November 13, which did not meet expectations [1][3]. Financial Data Analysis - On July 14, the central bank released June financial data that significantly exceeded expectations, leading to a bullish market trend [3]. - The October financial data released on November 13 was below expectations, resulting in a noticeable decline in the stock market starting November 14 [3][4]. - The primary reason for the explosive data in July was the unexpected increase in money supply driven by bond purchases, while the October data reflected a downturn in bond issuance, impacting money supply growth [5][12]. Monetary Mechanism Explanation - The central bank is the issuer of currency, and the total money supply (M2) is determined by the base currency and the reserve requirement ratio [5][7]. - Commercial banks can create money through asset expansion, which includes buying bonds, but they must first attract deposits [6][9]. - The difference between commercial banks and the central bank in money creation lies in the need for deposits and the type of money created (derived vs. base money) [9][10]. Market Outlook - The recent data indicated a turning point for both M1 and M2, primarily due to a decline in bond issuance [13]. - Despite the downward pressure, the market is expected to stabilize rather than enter a prolonged decline, as the bond market can be adjusted by issuers in response to economic conditions [13]. - The long-term outlook remains optimistic, with confidence in the market's potential for recovery driven by bond issuance mechanisms [13][14]. Sector Focus - Future national development priorities include technology, new productive forces, and industrial upgrades, which may lead to high valuations in tech sectors [15]. - Traditional sectors, while not the focus of future growth, have lower valuations and may present safer investment opportunities [15][16].