Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-11-27 06:21Core Viewpoint - Morningstar's report indicates that Alibaba-W (09988) experienced a nearly 78% quarter-over-quarter decline in adjusted EBITA for the second quarter ending September this year, with management forecasting a shift from "accelerated" to "high-speed" growth in cloud intelligence business revenue in the coming quarters [1] Financial Performance - The adjusted EBITA shortfall is attributed to an increase in instant retail losses and higher investments in foundational models and AI applications [1] - Morningstar has revised its adjusted EBITA forecasts for Alibaba for the fiscal years 2026 to 2028 down by 5% to 7%, while maintaining midcycle profit forecasts largely unchanged [1] Revenue Guidance - The guidance for cloud growth has been moderated, primarily due to supply constraints, quarterly fluctuations in internal AI cloud usage, and high base effects [1] - Morningstar maintains its expectations for cloud revenue and capital expenditures above guidance, while the customer management revenue guidance aligns with expectations [1] Market Position - The report emphasizes that Alibaba's business possesses a wide economic moat, suggesting that the market continues to underestimate the management's strong execution capabilities and the potential of its cloud business, indicating that the company's value remains undervalued [1]