IDC：2026年中国PC市场预计同比下降0.8% GenAI PC逆势爆发同比增长146.5%

Core Insights - The core insight of the articles is that the Chinese PC market is expected to experience a structural transformation by 2026, driven by the rise of GenAI PCs, gaming PCs, and the diversification of commercial terminals, with significant growth in various segments and a shift in consumer demographics towards second and third-tier cities [12]. Group 1: Market Overview - By 2026, China's PC market shipment is projected to reach 42.22 million units, a slight decline of 0.8% year-on-year, with consumer market expected to drop by 1.1% and small and medium enterprises declining by 2.7% [1]. - GenAI PCs are anticipated to see a remarkable growth of 146.5% year-on-year in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 58.7% from 2025 to 2029, potentially capturing 36.5% of the overall PC market by 2029 [1]. Group 2: Gaming PC Demand - The gaming PC market in China is expected to grow by 3.1% in 2026, with shipments reaching 15.13 million units, accounting for 35.9% of total PC shipments [2]. - The focus of competition in the gaming PC industry is shifting from hardware performance to AI-driven ecosystem development, creating a sustainable growth barrier for market participants [2]. Group 3: AIPC and Cloud Computing - AIPC is entering a high-growth phase, with prices expected to decrease as competition among chip manufacturers intensifies, making it more accessible to a broader consumer base [3]. - The cloud terminal market is projected to exceed 6.5 million units in shipments by 2026, with a CAGR of nearly 16% over the next five years, driven by the demand for innovative device forms and enhanced performance [9][10]. Group 4: Commercial Market Trends - The commercial market for GenAI PCs is expected to reach 5.98 million units by 2029, with a CAGR exceeding 72% from 2025 to 2029, driven by the transformation of service models towards AI-integrated solutions [4]. - The large customer market is projected to see non-Windows product shipments reach 5.6 million units in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.3% [5]. Group 5: Consumer Demographics - The demand for consumer PCs is being driven by three main groups: office workers, students, and the elderly, with office workers expected to account for 29.8% of the consumer PC market by 2026 [6]. - The aging population is emerging as a new growth point for PC consumption, with individuals over 60 contributing 6.2% to the PC market [6]. Group 6: Regional Market Shifts - By 2026, second and third-tier cities are expected to account for 39.7% of the PC market share, becoming the main purchasing market as consumer behavior shifts towards more rational spending [11]. - The East China region is projected to see the highest growth in PC sales, with a year-on-year increase of 0.5 percentage points, reaching 5.929 million units [11]. Group 7: AI Impact on PC Usage - The proliferation of AI technologies is expected to enhance user dependency on PCs, potentially shortening the replacement cycle for consumer PCs, which currently stands at 4-5 years [7]. - The proportion of users planning to purchase AIPC is expected to rise from 15% in the first half of 2025 to 32% in the second half, indicating a growing interest in AI-integrated PCs [7]. Group 8: Diversification of Commercial Terminals - The workstation market is projected to see shipments of 660,000 units in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.2%, while the industrial PC market is expected to grow by 11.7% to 4.56 million units [8]. - The demand for diverse commercial products is being driven by the increasing complexity of application scenarios and the rapid development of AI [8].