merzbank AG(US:CRZBY) Wen Hua Cai Jing·2025-11-27 06:43Core Viewpoint - Commerzbank has revised its forecasts for base metal prices upward due to favorable recent momentum amid rising prices [1] Group 1: Price Forecast Adjustments - The average price forecast for copper has been increased to $10,500 per ton from the previous $9,600 [1] - The average price forecast for aluminum has been raised from $2,600 to $2,900 [1] - The zinc price forecast has been adjusted upward from $2,800 to $3,000 [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Current strong copper prices may be premature, leaving room for short-term corrections due to supply conditions [1] - Nickel price forecast has been lowered from $16,000 per ton to $15,000 due to slowing production growth and continued ample supply, leading to downward pressure on prices [1] Group 3: Supply and Demand Factors - U.S. imported aluminum premiums have surged to record highs due to domestic shortages and a 50% tariff, alongside tightening global supply [1] - LME inventories have declined since mid-October, indicating that the supply effects driven by tariffs may be diminishing, with a potential inventory increase at the end of October linked to a trader's financial transaction replenishment [1]