黄金ETF持仓量报告解读（2025-11-27）黄金连续四个月上涨 冲4400

Group 1 - As of November 26, the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, held 1,045.43 tons of gold, an increase of 4.57 tons from the previous trading day [2] - On November 26, spot gold rebounded significantly, reaching a high of $4,173.10 per ounce and closing at $4,163.78 per ounce, up $33.16 or 0.80% [2] - Gold is on track for a fourth consecutive month of gains, continuing the strong momentum from October when it surged towards $4,400 [2] Group 2 - Despite stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data, such as initial jobless claims and durable goods orders, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations remain unchanged, with an 85% probability of a rate cut in December [2][3] - Analysts suggest that the delayed release of September's durable goods orders data due to a government shutdown limits its market relevance, indicating that gold may react more strongly to unexpected positive data [3] - UBS forecasts that market participants are pricing in a December rate cut, maintaining a positive short-term outlook for gold, with year-end price predictions of $4,200 and mid-2024 predictions of $4,500 [3] Group 3 - On the technical front, gold prices have continued to rise after rebounding from the 78.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $4,000, confirming the end of the correction since the November peak [3] - The next target for bullish traders is to break through $4,200, with resistance levels at the November 13 high of $4,245, and potential targets at $4,300 and the historical high of $4,381 [4] - If gold prices fall below $4,100, it may test the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) around $4,065, with further declines possible towards $4,000 [4]