ETO Markets 出入金：美债市场正在押注一场“鲍威尔妥协”

Core Viewpoint - The market is increasingly betting on a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, with the probability rising from 30% to 80% following recent comments from Fed officials and market movements [2][3][4] Group 1: Market Reactions - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell below 4% for the first time since October 8, reaching a low of 3.96% [2] - A record net long position among JPMorgan's institutional clients was reported, indicating a strong bullish sentiment [2] - SOFR options market saw a threefold increase in open interest for call options with a strike price of 96.25, corresponding to a 25 basis point rate cut [2] Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - New York Fed President Williams acknowledged that the policy's restrictive level is quite high and highlighted accumulating risks to employment [3] - A significant shift in the voting dynamics within the Fed was noted, with 9 officials supporting a rate cut and only 4 opposing it, marking the largest disparity since rate hikes began in March 2022 [3] - Some Wall Street firms, like Morgan Stanley, have withdrawn their 2024 rate cut predictions, citing persistent core inflation above 3% [3] Group 3: Economic Outlook - Economists express uncertainty about the path following a potential December rate cut, with concerns about labor market stability and inflation rebound due to fiscal expansion and oil price effects [4] - Historical data suggests that when the market prices in a rate decision above 75%, there is still a 20% chance of an unexpected outcome [4] - The upcoming November non-farm payroll and CPI data will be crucial in determining the Fed's next steps and market reactions [4]