吴晓求：为什么中国人活得很累？房地产价格下降制约消费扩张

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is undergoing a fundamental transformation from a state of scarcity to one of surplus, which has occurred in just over 40 years. This shift necessitates a reevaluation of consumption expansion strategies in the current economic context [2][4][5]. Group 1: Economic Transformation - The transition from a scarcity economy to a surplus economy is marked by rapid economic growth, with per capita GDP increasing from $150 to $13,500 over the past 40 years [4]. - All 220 sub-industries in China are currently experiencing surplus conditions, indicating a need for new management strategies to address this economic state [4]. Group 2: Consumption Expansion - To expand consumption, income levels must increase, which is heavily reliant on employment. Without sufficient employment, income growth becomes challenging [5]. - The current decline in real estate prices, which constitute 60% of household wealth, severely restricts consumption expansion. Legal protection of reasonable stock wealth is essential [6]. Group 3: Wealth and Social Security - The importance of preserving and enhancing stock wealth is emphasized, as it plays a crucial role in sustaining consumption expansion. The current societal focus on income rather than wealth preservation is problematic [6]. - There is a need for improvements in the social security system to alleviate future uncertainties and enhance consumer confidence. Adjustments in fiscal spending towards social welfare are recommended [7]. Group 4: Investment and Market Dynamics - Investment strategies should focus on iterative adjustments and industry upgrades, with a growing role for social capital in identifying future directions and managing surplus conditions [8].