供应不确定性增加 沪锡突破30万关口【11月27日SHFE市场收盘评论】

Core Viewpoint - Tin prices are experiencing an upward trend, with the main contract rising by 2.11% to 302,200 yuan/ton, driven by increased expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and heightened tensions in eastern Congo, although there has been no substantial impact on tin mining production yet [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of tin ore remains tight, with domestic smelters facing raw material supply constraints, leading to a low operating rate [1] - Domestic smelters have raw material inventories generally below 30 days, making it difficult for operating rates to increase in the near future [1] - The import volume of tin concentrate in China saw a slight increase in October, with imports from Congo and other countries rebounding, aligning with expectations, although affected by shipping factors [1] - Tin ore imports from Myanmar decreased slightly in October, but with mining permit approvals, an increase of over 2,000 tons is expected in November [1] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Recent commentary from New Lake Futures indicates that domestic production remains stable overall, but tin ore supply continues to be tight, and smelters are facing low processing fees, resulting in poor profitability [1] - There is a trend of weakening consumption in the domestic market, leading to a slight accumulation of inventory, although overall inventory levels remain low, limiting pressure [1] - Overseas inventories are also at low levels, and uncertainties regarding overseas mining operations continue to support high tin prices [1]