政策挡不住房地产大势？拆解美日历史，看清当前市场核心矛盾

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that macro policies have limitations in reversing the underlying logic of real estate cycles, as evidenced by historical crises in the US and Japan [1][3] - The US subprime mortgage crisis in 2007 was triggered by excessive debt expansion under a loose monetary environment, leading to a systemic risk that was exacerbated by delayed policy responses [3] - Japan's experience post-1990 highlights the severe consequences of policy hesitation, where the lack of timely intervention led to a prolonged period of economic stagnation and the accumulation of bad debts [3][5] Group 2 - Three key insights from the US and Japan experiences are identified: rapid monetary policy response is essential to prevent crisis transmission; bad debts must be cleared quickly to avoid long-term burdens; and a coordinated effort between policy support and market clearing is necessary during debt crises [5] - The current state of China's real estate market is at a critical juncture, with major city housing prices reverting to 2017 levels, indicating significant deflation of the bubble, yet liquidity issues remain prominent [5][7] - The core task of policy in China is to prevent the liquidity crisis from escalating into a debt crisis, with potential structural tools available, but implementation challenges are significant [7]