美国债务逼近38万亿，多国转向人民币结算，去美元化能实现吗

Group 1: U.S. Debt and Dollar Dominance - The U.S. national debt has reached nearly $38 trillion, marking a historical high and indicating a deep crisis within the dollar hegemony system [3][5] - The U.S. has relied on a "borrow new to pay old" debt cycle, supported by the dollar's status as the global reserve currency, allowing it to transfer debt risks globally [5][7] - Major creditors like China and Japan have been reducing their holdings of U.S. debt, leading to a declining share of U.S. debt held by global central banks, raising concerns about debt sustainability [5][9] Group 2: Challenges Faced by the U.S. Federal Reserve - The high debt levels force the Federal Reserve into a dilemma between raising interest rates to attract funds and risking global financial market instability, or injecting liquidity which could devalue the dollar [7][9] - The U.S. has weaponized the dollar, undermining its neutral role in the global economy, which has prompted countries to reconsider their reliance on the dollar [7][9] Group 3: Rise of Renminbi Settlement - The trend towards Renminbi (RMB) cross-border settlement is accelerating, driven by practical interests rather than a direct challenge to dollar dominance [9][10] - China, as the largest trading nation, has established RMB settlement with over 120 countries, enhancing trade efficiency and reducing reliance on the dollar [10][12] - The share of RMB in trade settlements among ASEAN countries has increased from less than 1% to over 10%, reflecting growing recognition of RMB's stability and inclusiveness [12][14] Group 4: Future of De-dollarization - While the dollar will maintain its dominant position in the short term, the global monetary system is expected to diversify in the long run, with the RMB becoming a significant player [16][18] - Over 90% of global foreign exchange transactions are still dollar-denominated, and the dollar remains the primary currency for key commodities, making its complete replacement unlikely in the near future [16][18] - The de-dollarization process is irreversible, with more countries adopting bilateral trade agreements in local currencies and increasing their foreign reserves in currencies like RMB, Euro, and Yen [18][20]