蔚来站在Q4盈利关口：多空现分歧，李斌仍自信

Core Viewpoint - NIO's Q3 financial results showed a significant reduction in net losses and an increase in gross margin, but concerns over Q4 delivery guidance have led to a decline in stock prices [1][4][5] Financial Performance - NIO reported a net loss of 34.81 billion yuan in Q3, a year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter reduction of over 30% [1] - The vehicle gross margin reached 14.7%, up 4.4 percentage points from the previous quarter, exceeding prior guidance and market expectations of 12.9% [1][3] - The overall gross margin for Q3 was 13.9%, an increase of 3.9 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [3] Delivery and Sales Structure - NIO delivered a total of 87,071 vehicles in Q3, with the L90 model contributing 21,572 units, accounting for 24.76% of total deliveries [2] - The delivery guidance for Q4 is set at 120,000 to 125,000 vehicles, with revenue expectations between 32.76 billion and 34.04 billion yuan [4][5] - In October, NIO delivered 40,397 vehicles, indicating a need for an average of 40,000 to 42,000 vehicles in November and December to meet Q4 guidance [4] Market Outlook and Analyst Predictions - Analysts have mixed views on NIO's future, with some raising Q4 gross margin forecasts while still predicting significant net losses [5][6] - Citigroup lowered its target price for NIO's U.S. stock from $8.60 to $6.90, while maintaining a "buy" rating [5] - JPMorgan believes NIO could achieve profitability in Q4 and anticipates a turning point in 2026 [6] Industry Challenges - NIO's CEO Li Bin highlighted a decline in demand due to the reduction of vehicle replacement subsidies, affecting the entire industry [1][7] - The company is focusing on maintaining stable prices to uphold brand value and consumer confidence amid market uncertainties [8] - Li emphasized the importance of operational efficiency and a commitment to core business practices to achieve sustainable profitability [8]