清华大学阎学通：2026年国际形势的动荡情况将弱于2025年，中美实力差距一定会缩小

Core Viewpoint - The international situation in 2026 will be less turbulent than in 2025, primarily influenced by the behavior of major power decision-makers rather than structural factors [2][5][6]. Group 1: International Relations Dynamics - The turbulence in international relations in 2026 is expected to be weaker than in 2025 due to the continuity of Trump's leadership, which will provide more predictability [6][7]. - Major power decision-makers have learned how to respond to Trump's policies, leading to a reduction in uncertainty and turbulence [7][8]. - The lack of leadership in global governance will continue, with a regression in global governance and an increase in de-globalization [8][9]. Group 2: U.S.-China Relations - The power gap between China and the U.S. is anticipated to narrow in 2026, as Trump's policies may hinder U.S. economic growth and technological advancement [9][10]. - The strategic relationship between the U.S. and its allies is expected to weaken, prompting these countries to reconsider their balance between the U.S. and China [9][10]. - The U.S. will maintain its policy of containing China's technological progress, regardless of the administration in power, as technological innovation is seen as a core element of national security and global influence [12][13]. Group 3: Regional Relationships - China's relationships with neighboring countries, excluding Japan, are expected to improve in 2026, with a notable shift in India's stance towards China [10][11]. - The political concept of the "West" is becoming less relevant due to increasing divisions among Western countries, particularly between the U.S. and Europe [11].