ZHONGJI INNOLIGHT(SZ:300308) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-11-27 09:17Group 1 - The demand for AI infrastructure is rapidly expanding to other cloud service providers, sovereign nations, and enterprise clients, with Nvidia's visibility of over $500 billion in revenue boosting confidence in the current super cycle [1][2] - Major cloud providers in the US (Google, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon) are projected to have capital expenditures of $230 billion in 2024 (up 55% year-on-year) and further investments of $259 billion in the first three quarters of 2025 (up 65% year-on-year) [1] - The capital expenditure for 2025 is expected to reach $367 billion (up 59% year-on-year), with a projected growth of 35% to $495 billion in 2026 [1] Group 2 - Leading optical module manufacturers are experiencing strong revenue growth driven by the AI boom, with Coherent, Zhongji Xuchuang, and NewEase achieving revenue growth rates of 15%, 120%, and 175% respectively in 2024 [3] - Gross margins are improving due to the upgrade of AI network deployments to 800G/1.6T optical modules, with increases of 2.5, 9.2, and 5.4 percentage points from Q3 2024 to Q3 2025 [3] - By 2026, it is expected that leading companies will continue to perform strongly due to growth in shipment volumes, product structure optimization, and price increases from 1.6T products [3] Group 3 - The supply chain remains tight, particularly for key components like EML chips, with Lumentum indicating that demand "far exceeds supply" [4] - The EML industry is actively expanding capacity, with Lumentum planning a 40% increase, while silicon photonics technology is accelerating its penetration to alleviate supply bottlenecks [4] - By 2026, silicon photonics is expected to exceed a 50% market share, with global shipments of 800G and 1.6T optical module products projected to reach 49 million and 22 million respectively, despite a significant supply-demand gap [4] Group 4 - The optical module industry is reaffirmed as a preferred sector, with a "buy" rating maintained for Zhongji Xuchuang, targeting a price of 591.00 RMB [5] - The company is positioned as a global leader in optical modules (first in market share in 2024) and is expected to benefit from the expansion of overseas AI capital expenditures and increased demand for 1.6T optical modules [5]