JPMorgan says oil prices could crash more than 50% in the next 2 years

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices are projected to face significant declines over the next two years due to a structural imbalance between supply and demand, with a potential drop of up to 50% by the end of 2027 [1][5]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Oil prices have decreased by 15% this year, with supply expected to grow at three times the rate of demand in 2026 [1][2]. - Demand has consistently exceeded expectations, but supply growth has outpaced demand gains by more than twofold, primarily driven by non-OPEC+ producers, especially in the Americas [3][4]. Price Forecast - Brent crude prices are anticipated to fall to the low $30s per barrel by the end of 2027, down from approximately $63.50 currently [3][5]. - Specific projections include Brent prices slipping below $60 in 2026 and averaging $42 in 2027, with a surplus expected to reach 2.8 million barrels per day in 2026 [4][5]. Market Adjustments - While adjustments on both supply and demand sides are expected, the burden of rebalancing is likely to fall predominantly on supply [5].