AI泡沫没破！两大‘死亡开关’未触发，真正危险期是在2026年中？

Core Viewpoint - Despite concerns about an AI bubble, there are currently no key signals indicating an imminent collapse, with the two critical "death switches" of massive capital withdrawal and core application failure not yet triggered [1][3] Group 1: Market Conditions - The recent decline in the US stock market is primarily due to liquidity issues rather than an AI bubble burst, with factors such as government shutdowns and the Federal Reserve's ambiguous stance contributing to a sudden liquidity crunch [1][3] - The US Treasury's account balance surged to nearly $1 trillion during the government shutdown, draining market liquidity significantly [3] - The market is currently experiencing a liquidity crisis, affecting asset prices across the board, including traditionally safe-haven assets like gold and cryptocurrencies [1][3] Group 2: AI Sector Analysis - The AI sector is not as overvalued as during the internet bubble, with leading companies like Nvidia and Google maintaining lower capital expenditure ratios and strong cash flows [4][6] - AI-related capital expenditures have shifted towards debt financing, but major tech firms have sufficient resources to sustain their operations, as evidenced by Microsoft's projected capital expenditure increase of 58% to $88.2 billion in fiscal year 2025 [6] - The current monetary environment is favorable for the AI sector, contrasting with the conditions that led to the internet bubble's burst, as the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a loose monetary policy until at least 2026 [6][8] Group 3: Future Outlook - The potential risk window for the AI sector may extend to mid-2026, where a combination of deteriorating fundamentals and tightening liquidity could pose significant threats [3][9] - Key indicators to monitor include the performance of gold and cryptocurrencies, as well as the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, which could signal worsening liquidity conditions [8][9] - The AI industry is currently characterized as a "top-tier banquet," with major players investing heavily in infrastructure, while the application layer is still in exploratory phases, indicating that a true bubble has not yet formed [9]