沪铜连升第四日，因对美联储12月降息押注升温

Group 1 - Copper prices in Shanghai rose for the fourth consecutive trading day, driven by market expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, with the most active January copper contract closing at 86,990 yuan per ton, up 300 yuan or 0.35% [1] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month copper price decreased by 55.5 USD or 0.51%, settling at 10,919.50 USD per ton, while it had previously reached a high of 11,025 USD per ton [1] - Analysts from ING reported that the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has increased to over 80%, compared to approximately 30% a week prior [1] Group 2 - Recent U.S. data indicated weak retail sales and declining consumer confidence, reinforcing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut [2] - Global copper supply is tight, with Codelco pushing for a premium of 350 USD per ton for its 2026 annual contracts, significantly higher than the 89 USD per ton agreed upon this year [2] - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) projected a supply shortage of 150,000 tons in the global copper market by 2026, with a 2.3% increase in global copper mine production expected [2] Group 3 - In the Shanghai market, various metals showed mixed performance, with aluminum and tin prices rising, while lead and nickel prices fell [3] - The three-month LME prices for aluminum, zinc, and lead experienced slight declines, while nickel and tin prices saw minor increases [3]