亚洲货币普遍走强，印度卢比逆势大跌成2025年“差等生”

Core Viewpoint - The Indian Rupee is projected to be the worst-performing currency in Asia by 2025, potentially experiencing its largest annual decline since 2022 due to various economic pressures [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Performance - The Indian Rupee has been under significant pressure, with a notable drop to 89.4812 Rupees per Dollar on November 21, indicating a possible cessation of intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) [2][5]. - The Rupee's decline began in January, with a brief recovery in March and April, peaking at 83.7538 Rupees per Dollar in early May, driven by optimism regarding trade agreements with the U.S. [4]. - The currency faced severe depreciation after the announcement of higher tariffs by the U.S. in July, leading to a record monthly decline since 2022 [4][10]. Group 2: Economic Factors - The primary reasons for the Rupee's weakness include increased tariffs on Indian exports by the U.S. and significant capital outflows from the Indian stock market, with foreign investors withdrawing nearly $16.3 billion in 2023 [2][4]. - The RBI has sold over $30 billion in foreign exchange assets since late July to stabilize the Rupee, but the currency continues to face downward pressure [2][9]. - The ongoing trade deficit and the need for foreign exchange to cover imports further weaken the Rupee, contrasting with other Asian currencies that maintain trade surpluses [11]. Group 3: RBI's Intervention Strategy - The RBI has historically intervened to stabilize the Rupee, primarily through the sale of foreign reserves, but has adopted a less interventionist approach under new leadership [6][10]. - The RBI's current foreign exchange reserves stand at approximately $693 billion, sufficient to cover about 11 months of imports [6]. - The IMF has classified India's exchange rate regime as "crawling peg," indicating a shift towards gradual adjustments rather than aggressive interventions [6]. Group 4: Implications of Rupee Weakness - A weaker Rupee enhances the competitiveness of Indian exports, potentially offsetting the impact of tariffs as India seeks to expand its market through trade agreements [12]. - The depreciation of the Rupee benefits Indian expatriates by increasing the value of remittances, projected to reach a record $137 billion in 2024 [12]. - Conversely, the weaker currency raises the cost of imports, particularly for essential goods like oil and fertilizers, which India heavily relies on [12].