每日投行/机构观点梳理（2025-11-27）

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Predictions - Morgan Stanley predicts the Federal Reserve will initiate rate cuts in December, reversing their previous forecast of a delay until January [1] - The research team led by Michael Feroli noted support for recent rate cuts from several Federal Reserve officials, particularly from New York Fed President Williams [1] - Morgan Stanley now expects two rate cuts of 25 basis points each in December and January [1] Group 2: UK Economic Outlook - Berenberg Bank indicates that the UK's fiscal space has increased, which supports the possibility of rate cuts by the Bank of England [2] - Deutsche Bank reports that the UK budget is better than expected, with fiscal buffers increasing from £10 billion to just below £22 billion, and public borrowing expected to decline [3] - BlackRock analysts believe the UK budget will boost market confidence and alleviate political concerns, with the government expanding fiscal space to £22 billion [2] Group 3: Currency and Market Reactions - Morgan Stanley has ended its bullish stance on the British pound, suggesting that the recent budget may have provided the last positive catalyst for the currency [3] - Analysts noted that the correlation between the pound and the stock market has dropped to zero, diminishing the currency's appeal [3] Group 4: Japan's Economic Policy - Fitch Ratings warns that Japan's new stimulus plan could pose risks to its credit rating if it leads to prolonged monetary easing and increased government debt [4] - The stimulus plan, amounting to approximately 3.4% of GDP, has uncertain fiscal impacts due to its reliance on non-fiscal measures and potential implementation risks [4] - Analysts from the Commonwealth Bank of Australia suggest that political factors may delay the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike until January [4] Group 5: Industry Insights - China Galaxy Securities forecasts a "bumpy" trend for the computer industry in 2025, with a focus on AI applications and the acceleration of model parity by 2026 [5] - CITIC Securities anticipates downward pressure on beef supply by 2026, with a cumulative reduction in stock exceeding 10% since 2024 [6] - CITIC Securities has raised its lithium price forecast upper limit to 120,000 yuan per ton, driven by strong demand in the energy storage battery sector [6]