日央行这只“黑天鹅”正在起飞

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is signaling a potential shift from its long-standing ultra-loose monetary policy, with indications that interest rate hikes could begin as early as December, amidst a backdrop of a weakening yen and rising inflation pressures [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Changes - The BOJ has adjusted its communication strategy to focus on the inflation risks posed by the weak yen, preparing the market for a possible interest rate hike in December [2]. - A recent survey indicates that just over half of economists expect the BOJ to raise rates at its next meeting on December 18-19, with projections suggesting rates could rise to 0.75% by March next year [2]. - The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds has surged to 1.821%, reflecting investor re-evaluation of Japan's monetary policy outlook [2]. Group 2: Government Stimulus and Economic Impact - The Japanese government has announced a massive stimulus package totaling 21.3 trillion yen, financed by issuing at least 11.5 trillion yen in new debt, marking the largest fiscal stimulus since the easing of pandemic restrictions [3]. - The government has abandoned its goal of achieving an annual fiscal surplus, raising concerns about the sustainability of Japan's fiscal policy, especially as government debt exceeds twice the GDP [3][4]. Group 3: Policy Dilemma - There exists a "policy deadlock" where the need for low interest rates to support fiscal stimulus conflicts with the increased debt burden that would result from rate hikes [4]. - The lack of normalization in monetary policy amidst high inflation could heighten the risk of inflation detachment, while concerns over fiscal sustainability may elevate risk premiums on long-term Japanese government bonds [5]. Group 4: Economic Growth and Market Sentiment - Japan's economy has already shown negative growth in Q3, a direct impact of U.S. tariffs, particularly affecting the automotive sector [5]. - The Japanese government has revised its economic growth forecast for FY2025 down from 1.2% to 0.7% [5]. - The volatility of the yen is influencing the broader Asian financial markets, with the Korean won showing heightened sensitivity to fluctuations in the yen [5]. Group 5: Potential for Currency Intervention - Japanese officials have reiterated their readiness to respond to excessive market volatility, echoing language used prior to significant interventions in the past [6]. - There is a risk of unexpected government intervention in the currency market, which could be considered a "black swan" event [5][6]. Group 6: Global Monetary Policy Dynamics - A successful rate hike in December could reshape asset pricing in Japan, marking a historic divergence in monetary policy between the U.S. and Japan, as both countries may adopt opposing monetary stances for the first time in decades [7]. - This convergence of policies could redefine the role of the yen within the global monetary system [7].