美国人捂紧钱包，商家没底气打折，美版“双十一”这回要遇冷？

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming holiday shopping season in the U.S. is expected to be subdued due to high tariffs, persistent inflation, and a cooling job market, leading consumers to adopt a "downgrade consumption" approach [3][4][9]. Consumer Behavior - The annual "Black Friday" shopping event is anticipated to see a record 186.9 million shoppers, but sales growth from Black Friday to the end of the year is expected to slow, with sales projected to exceed $1 trillion but grow only by 3.7% to 4.2%, down from 4.8% last year [5][6]. - Consumers are becoming more budget-conscious, with a Deloitte survey indicating a 4% decrease in spending during Black Friday compared to last year, reversing a trend of increasing spending since 2020 [7][8]. - Lower-income consumers (under $50,000) are expected to reduce spending by 12%, while those earning over $200,000 anticipate an 18% decrease [7]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. economy is showing signs of weakness, with the Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicating a decline in overall consumer spending and a slight drop in employment [10][11]. - Retail sales in September rose by only 0.2%, below the expected 0.4%, and consumer confidence dropped to its lowest level since April [10][11]. - Inflation remains a concern, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 3% year-over-year in September, and expectations of continued high inflation [11]. Market Dynamics - The reduced discounting during the holiday season is attributed to importers bearing most of the tariff costs, which has compressed retail margins and limited promotional space [8][11]. - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies and ongoing inflationary pressures are contributing to a lack of consumer confidence, with many feeling financially burdened [11][15]. Future Outlook - The performance of this holiday shopping season could significantly impact economic growth expectations and influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions, particularly regarding interest rates [14][15]. - Upcoming economic data releases, including GDP figures, will be crucial for assessing the overall economic trajectory [14].