英国预算案“画饼”2029?市场不买账，国债英镑齐回吐

Group 1 - The UK government bond and pound have reversed gains following the budget announcement, with the 10-year bond yield rising to 4.46% and the pound dropping 0.2% against the dollar to 1.3221 [1][5] - The budget plan includes a tax increase of £26 billion (approximately $34 billion) that will not take effect until 2029/30, raising concerns among market participants about the lack of immediate revenue impact [4] - Business leaders from various sectors, including hotels, insurance, and banking, criticized the budget for failing to lay a foundation for economic growth, with some suggesting it is a "spending tomorrow's money" budget [4] Group 2 - Despite the challenges, UK bonds and the pound have seen cumulative gains this week, with traders focusing on the potential for a Bank of England rate cut next month, with a nearly 90% probability of a 25 basis point cut in December [5] - The Resolution Foundation, a prominent fiscal think tank, stated that the budget does not adequately repair the UK's public finances, indicating that further budget tightening is necessary [5] - The UK Debt Management Office plans to reduce long-term bond issuance in the current fiscal year, which may lead to decreased supply in the coming months [5]