清华大学国际关系研究院名誉院长阎学通：2026年国际形势依然由大国决策者行为决定

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the international situation in 2025 cannot be explained by structural factors but is determined by the actions of major power decision-makers, with a prediction that the turbulence in 2026 will be less than in 2025 [1] - The certainty brought by Trump's continued presidency will increase compared to 2025, as other major powers have learned how to respond to his administration, leading to reduced volatility [1] - The power gap between China and the US is expected to narrow by 2026, although the US's policy to contain China will remain unchanged [1] Group 2 - The strategic competition between superpowers in the digital age is centered on technological innovation, particularly in digital technology, which is crucial for national security, wealth, and international influence [1] - The core elements of national security and status among major powers will increasingly focus on technological innovation capabilities [1]