欧央行官员Kazaks警告：“现在谈降息为时过早”，通胀风险仍需警惕

Core Viewpoint - European Central Bank (ECB) Council member Martins Kazaks dampened market expectations for an imminent interest rate cut, emphasizing that discussions on further monetary policy easing are premature due to persistently high potential inflation rates and associated risks [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Outlook - Kazaks stated that the timing for discussing interest rate cuts is not yet mature, especially ahead of the ECB's upcoming policy meeting on December 18 [1] - Despite the ECB halving its policy rate over the past year, decision-makers remain vigilant regarding inflation, maintaining current rates since June [1] - Kazaks highlighted that any future rate cuts are not guaranteed, indicating a cautious stance due to core inflation rates being "well above 2%" [1] Group 2: Inflation Forecasts - The upcoming December meeting will be crucial as new inflation forecasts for the next three years will be presented to ECB decision-makers [2] - Kazaks emphasized the importance of the 2026 and 2027 inflation predictions, noting that monetary policy effects take one to two years to materialize, making near-term data more relevant [2] - According to the ECB's September forecasts, inflation is expected to be 1.7% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027, both close to or below the 2% target [2] Group 3: Inflation Risks - Kazaks acknowledged potential downward pressures on inflation, such as delays in the EU ETS2 emissions trading system and the possible appreciation of the euro [3] - However, he warned against overlooking upward inflation risks, such as price pressures from trade fragmentation [3] - He reiterated that the ECB should remain focused on core inflation, which remains significantly above 2%, indicating that controlling potential price pressures is a primary concern [3]