欧央行10月会议纪要：“不急于降息”成共识，当前观望是最佳策略

Core Points - The European Central Bank (ECB) consensus from the October meeting indicates a reluctance to lower interest rates, citing high uncertainty and the adequacy of current monetary policy [1] - The ECB decided to maintain interest rates, believing the current policy is in a "good state" due to economic resilience and inflation being close to target levels [1] - Market sentiment suggests that there is only about a one-third chance of further monetary easing by the ECB until 2026 [1] Summary by Sections Monetary Policy Stance - The ECB's October meeting minutes reveal a preference for maintaining a wait-and-see approach, with current policy rates viewed as robust enough to handle shocks [1] - Some officials believe the rate-cutting cycle may have ended, as favorable economic prospects are expected to persist unless risks materialize [1] Economic Indicators - Subsequent economic data released since the meeting has reinforced market expectations, showing that the Eurozone economy continues to grow, albeit at a slow pace [1] - Inflation rates remain anchored near the ECB's target of 2%, contributing to the confidence in the current monetary policy stance [1] Future Inflation Concerns - There is a potential for next year's inflation rate to fall below the target level due to the base effect from declining energy prices, which could reignite discussions on rate cuts [2] - Despite the ECB's traditional disregard for inflation fluctuations caused by energy price volatility, some board members warn that sustained low inflation readings could lower inflation expectations and lead to prolonged weak price growth [2]