Core Viewpoint - Canggang Railway is at risk of being removed from the Hong Kong Stock Connect due to its average market capitalization of HKD 49.60 billion being below the threshold of HKD 60.07 billion, alongside a significant decline in stock liquidity and trading volume [1][3]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Canggang Railway reported revenue of HKD 13.17 million, a slight decrease of 0.3% compared to HKD 13.21 million in the same period of 2024, primarily due to a 0.5% drop in core railway freight business revenue [4]. - The company's net profit for the same period was HKD 30.88 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17.2%, attributed to cost control and improved operational efficiency [4]. - For the full year of 2024, Canggang Railway's revenue was HKD 25.9 million, a decrease of 25.82% year-on-year, mainly due to reduced demand in the coal market impacting core freight business [5]. Business Structure and Risks - Canggang Railway's core business is heavily reliant on coal transportation, which accounts for over 85% of its revenue, making it vulnerable to fluctuations in coal demand and regulatory changes aimed at reducing carbon emissions [3][5]. - The company has been facing significant stock price volatility, with a cumulative decline of over 36% from its peak in October 2023, leading to concerns about its liquidity and market confidence [1][3]. Management Actions - Recent actions by the company's executives, including significant share sell-offs by the chairman, have raised concerns about internal confidence in the company's future performance [6]. - In contrast, the Hebei Cangzhou Transportation Control Group has increased its stake in Canggang Railway, indicating a commitment to support the company and stabilize market confidence [7]. Future Outlook - Canggang Railway plans to enhance its operations through new branch line construction, infrastructure upgrades, and market expansion into new freight categories to mitigate the risks associated with its heavy reliance on coal [8]. - The company's ability to diversify its revenue streams and reduce dependence on coal will be critical for its long-term sustainability and growth potential [8].
业绩波动+股价疲软之下，沧港铁路(02169)或面临剔除港股通风险?