富国银行预警哥伦比亚比索、智利比索及阿根廷比索位列全球最脆弱货币

Core Insights - Wells Fargo economists expect a rate cut from the Federal Reserve in December, but increasing uncertainty is putting pressure on emerging market currencies [1] Currency Vulnerability Assessment - Colombia, Chile, and Argentina are identified as having the most vulnerable currencies, with significant depreciation risks if U.S. monetary policy deviates from market expectations [1] - Current exchange rates and estimated peak depreciations are as follows: - Colombian Peso: current at 3809, estimated peak at 4634 - Chilean Peso: current at 939, estimated peak at 1154 - Argentine Peso: current at 1341, estimated peak at 1425 [1] Political and Economic Context - Chile's currency vulnerability is attributed to political fragility and limited market intervention capabilities [1] - Brazil and Peru are viewed as the least risky economies in the Latin American region [1] Long-term Outlook - The assessment serves as a stress-testing tool for potential shocks rather than direct exchange rate predictions [1] - If the Federal Reserve begins a rate-cutting cycle in the first half of 2026, emerging market currencies may find medium-term support, but long-term depreciation pressures could persist once the easing cycle ends [1]