Why Is Sherwin-Williams (SHW) Down 0.7% Since Last Earnings Report?

Core Viewpoint - Sherwin-Williams reported strong Q3 earnings and revenues that surpassed estimates, but there is a recent downward trend in estimates leading up to the next earnings release [2][8]. Financial Performance - Q3 2025 earnings were $3.35 per share, a 5.3% increase from $3.18 in the same quarter last year, with adjusted earnings at $3.59 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.46 [2]. - Revenues for Q3 were approximately $6.36 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 3.2% and exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.2 billion [2]. Segmental Review - The Paint Stores Group segment achieved net sales of $3.84 billion, up 5.1% year over year, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.72 billion, driven by higher selling prices and improved profits from operational leverage [3]. - The Consumer Brands Group segment saw a decline in net sales by 2.6% year over year to $770.1 million, although it beat the consensus estimate of $740 million, with soft DIY demand in North America and Latin America being the primary cause [4]. - The Performance Coatings Group reported a 1.7% increase in net sales to approximately $1.75 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of $1.74 billion, supported by volume growth and acquisitions, despite a challenging sales mix [5]. Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns - In the first nine months of 2025, Sherwin-Williams generated $2.36 billion in net operating cash and returned $2.13 billion to shareholders through dividends and stock repurchases, including 4.5 million shares [6]. Future Outlook - For Q4 and full-year 2025, the company expects net sales to increase by a low to mid-single-digit percentage and a low-single-digit percentage, respectively, with projected net income per share ranging from $10.16 to $10.36 [7]. - The effective tax rate is anticipated to be in the low 20% range for 2025, and the full-year outlook includes the impact of the Suvinil acquisition, which was completed on October 1 [7]. Estimate Trends - Recent estimates for Sherwin-Williams have been trending downward, indicating a shift in market expectations [8][11]. - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting an expectation of in-line returns in the coming months [11].