Ge Long Hui·2025-11-27 19:44Core Insights - Alibaba reported FY2026Q2 (corresponding to calendar year Q3 2025) revenue of 247.8 billion yuan, a 5% year-on-year increase, slightly exceeding market expectations, with a same-store revenue growth of 15% when excluding Gaoxin Retail and Intime [1] - Adjusted EBITA was 9.1 billion yuan, while Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was 10.5 billion yuan, falling short of the market expectation of 13.5 billion yuan [1] E-commerce Performance - The core e-commerce segment TR led growth, with Q3 2025 revenue from the China e-commerce group increasing by 15.5% year-on-year, maintaining stable market share for Taotian GMV [2] - Customer management revenue (CMR) grew by 10% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations, contributing to a 0.2 percentage point increase in TR [2] - EBITA for the quarter declined by 76% to 10.5 billion yuan due to investments in instant retail, resulting in a 31 percentage point drop in EBITA margin [2] - Excluding flash purchase impacts, adjusted EBITA for China e-commerce showed low single-digit year-on-year growth, with estimated flash purchase losses around 36 billion yuan [2] AI and Cloud Growth - The Cloud Intelligence Group's revenue grew by 34% year-on-year in Q3 2025, surpassing Bloomberg's expectation of 28%, with internal and external cloud revenues increasing by 34% and 29% respectively [2] - AI-related revenue maintained triple-digit year-on-year growth, with Alibaba Cloud holding the largest market share in China's AI cloud market at 35.8% as of H1 2025 [2] - Adjusted EBITA margin for Alibaba Cloud was 9%, meeting expectations, with planned capital expenditures exceeding 380 billion yuan over the next three years [2] Investment Outlook - As a leading player in e-commerce and cloud computing, Alibaba is expected to strengthen its competitive advantage driven by AI [2] - Revenue forecasts for fiscal years 2026-2028 are projected at 1,039.9 billion yuan, 1,137.3 billion yuan, and 1,262.7 billion yuan respectively, with Non-GAAP net profits of 110.9 billion yuan, 167.9 billion yuan, and 206.5 billion yuan [2]