Ge Long Hui·2025-11-27 19:44Core Viewpoint - Alibaba's FY2026 Q2 performance shows a revenue of 247.8 billion yuan, a 5% increase, but a Non-GAAP net profit of 10.4 billion yuan, a 72% decrease, indicating challenges in profitability despite revenue growth [1] E-commerce - Alibaba's China e-commerce group achieved revenue of 132.6 billion yuan, a 16% increase, with customer management revenue at 78.9 billion yuan, a 10% increase, reflecting a steady improvement in monetization rates [1] - Adjusted EBITA for the e-commerce group was 10.5 billion yuan, a 76% year-on-year decline, primarily due to investments in new instant retail businesses, but excluding these impacts, the core e-commerce EBITA showed single-digit growth [1] Instant Retail - The order structure for instant retail improved, with the loss per order (UE) halving since the peak in July and August, driven by a higher proportion of high-value orders and reduced logistics costs [2] - Non-food categories also saw rapid growth, with orders from Hema and other platforms increasing by 30% month-on-month [2] - The company plans to enhance user experience and focus on high-value customer management, indicating a commitment to long-term investment in instant retail [2] Cloud and AI - The cloud intelligence group reported revenue growth of 28%, exceeding expectations, with AI-related product revenue maintaining triple-digit growth [3] - Adjusted EBITA was 3.6 billion yuan, a 35% increase, with an EBITA margin of 9%, indicating strong profitability in the cloud segment [3] - The company anticipates further capital expenditure beyond the previously set target of 380 billion yuan over three years, driven by robust customer demand [3] Investment Recommendations - The company maintains a strong outlook for its e-commerce core competitiveness, growth potential in instant retail, and long-term growth in cloud and AI businesses, projecting Non-GAAP net profits of 106.9 billion, 166.6 billion, and 201.8 billion yuan for FY2026-2028 [3] - A target price of 185 HKD per share is set, with a "strong buy" rating maintained [3]