美联储降息分歧：控通胀还是保就业

Economic Overview - The latest Federal Reserve Beige Book indicates that economic activity remained largely unchanged across most regions, with two regions reporting slight declines and one region experiencing moderate growth during the reporting period from mid-October to November 17 [1] - The report highlights both inflationary pressures and weakening employment, but does not specify which issue poses a greater risk, leaving the Federal Reserve's decision-making for the upcoming meeting uncertain [1] Inflation Insights - Current inflation in the U.S. shows both upward pressures and mitigating factors, remaining overall manageable; the core PCE year-on-year growth is expected to decrease from 2.9% in August to 2.8% in September [2] - A significant decline in housing inflation was noted in October, with rents decreasing by 0.31% month-on-month, marking the largest monthly drop in 15 years [2] - The U.S. government has recently lowered tariffs on certain food and agricultural products to alleviate consumer pressure, which may contribute to a gradual decline in overall inflation [2] Employment Trends - Despite an increase in non-farm payrolls in September, the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, with a trend of increasing unemployment observed over the past three months [3] - The unemployment rate for college graduates aged 20 to 24 reached 8.5%, which could disproportionately impact consumer spending due to this demographic's significant contribution to the labor force and income [3] - Layoffs have surged, with companies announcing 153,000 job cuts in October, a 175.3% increase year-on-year, and total layoffs exceeding 1,099,500 for the year, a 65% increase [3] Consumer Behavior - A K-shaped recovery is evident in the U.S. economy, with high-income consumers maintaining spending while middle and low-income consumers are cutting back [4] - Credit card spending increased by 7.5% year-on-year in Q3, but the average spending among lower-income consumers has declined after adjusting for inflation [4] - Housing affordability is at a historical low, with the median income required to purchase a new car increasing from 32.8 weeks in November 2019 to 37.4 weeks in September this year [4] Monetary Policy Outlook - The risk of weakening employment is currently viewed as greater than the risk of rising inflation, suggesting a need for continued interest rate cuts to support employment and consumer spending among lower-income groups [5] - Most Federal Reserve officials support three rate cuts within the year, with a December cut seen as a baseline scenario, despite ongoing internal disagreements [5] - If consensus is not reached, the meeting may be postponed to await additional employment and inflation data from October and November [5]