创一年新高！人民币兑美元汇率或有震荡

Core Viewpoint - The onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates have both surpassed the 7.08 mark, reaching their highest levels since mid-October of the previous year, indicating a strong performance of the RMB against the USD [1] Group 1: Exchange Rate Performance - As of November 27, the onshore RMB to USD rate was reported at 7.07990, while the offshore rate was at 7.07605 [1] - The RMB central parity rate was adjusted up by 17 basis points to 7.0779, with a year-to-date increase of over 1000 basis points [1] - The onshore RMB has appreciated nearly 3% against the USD this year, while the offshore RMB has appreciated approximately 3.5% [1] Group 2: Market Insights - The USD index has been fluctuating around the 100 mark, maintaining overall strength, yet the RMB has shown resilience, achieving a new high against a basket of currencies [1] - According to the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, in October, banks settled $214.2 billion and sold $196.5 billion in foreign exchange, with foreign income at $623.1 billion and payments at $571.9 billion [1] - Analysts predict that the RMB exchange rate will likely exhibit a stable trend, with minor fluctuations against the USD [1][2] Group 3: Future Outlook - Citic Securities' chief economist forecasts a moderate appreciation of the RMB exchange rate by 2026 [1] - Wealth research director Liu Youhua suggests that the RMB central parity has the potential to test the "7" mark in the future [1] - Dongfang Jincheng's chief macro analyst Wang Qing believes that the RMB exchange rate will primarily maintain stability, with relatively small fluctuations against the USD [1]