田轩 | 10月中国金融市场：暖区间再现

Core Insights - The financial environment in October 2025 shows a slight improvement, with the Daokou Financial Weather Index rising to 140.3, indicating a more relaxed financial condition compared to the low period of 2024, but still moderate compared to the stimulus period of 2021 [2] Stock Market - The stock market index decreased slightly by 1% from 25.4 to 25.0 month-on-month, but increased by 22% year-on-year from 20.5 to 25.0, indicating a long-term positive trend despite short-term volatility [6] - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%–4.00% in October is seen as a supportive signal for global liquidity, although future actions will depend on inflation and employment data [6][7] - Internal market conditions show structural differentiation in corporate financing, with a cautious sentiment due to regulatory tightening and a slowdown in new loans and social financing [6][7] Macro-Leverage Market - The financial index decreased by 4% month-on-month from 27.0 to 25.8, but increased by 47% year-on-year from 17.6 to 25.8, reflecting resilience in the financial system amid structural adjustments [8] - The bond market's custodial scale declined due to varied issuance schedules of special bonds, leading to a marginal contraction in supply [8] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) supports the issuance of 500 billion yuan in policy financial tools, but M2 growth is slowing, indicating a lag in liquidity transmission [8] Banking and Credit Market - The financial index remained stable month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 10% from 18.5 to 20.3, indicating stability in credit volume and structural optimization [9] - The PBOC maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR), balancing growth and risk prevention, while the decline in financing costs has slowed, affecting medium to long-term loan demand [9] - There is a structural recovery in real estate-related credit, driven by the acceleration of special bond funds for affordable housing projects [9] Money and Interbank Market - The financial index remained stable month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 3% from 25.2 to 26.0, reflecting a search for balance amid policy adjustments and external changes [10] - The issuance of approximately 350 billion yuan in new special bonds and PBOC's liquidity injections have contributed to a relatively loose interbank market [10] - The internationalization of the renminbi has made significant progress, with agreements for oil trade settlements in renminbi with Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries [10] Non-Traditional Banking Market - The financial index increased by 9.9% month-on-month from 17.9 to 19.6, and by 11% year-on-year from 17.7 to 19.6, indicating strong expansion [11] - The demand for financing from enterprises has shown moderate recovery, with some opting for non-bank channels due to diversification needs [11] - Regulatory guidance continues to lead to a contraction in non-standard business, while traditional credit remains cautious [11] Bond Market - The financial index increased slightly by 2% month-on-month from 23.0 to 23.4, but decreased by 18% year-on-year from 28.6 to 23.4, indicating a "price increase, volume decrease" pattern [12] - The market's expectations for domestic monetary policy remain neutral, with slight upward pressure on government bond yields [12] - Structural issues persist in the bond market, including uneven interest rate marketization and limited foreign investment participation [12] Policy Recommendations - To balance "stabilizing growth" and "preventing risks," efforts should focus on developing a technology finance system, nurturing a mature long-term capital ecosystem, and enhancing the global attractiveness of China's bond and capital markets [13][14]