沪锌偏强格局延续

Core Viewpoint - Zinc prices have shown increased volatility and a steady upward trend since November, influenced by divergent domestic and international fundamentals and signals from Federal Reserve officials regarding a potential rate cut in December [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global zinc market is experiencing a significant supply shortage, with a deficit of 373,700 tons from January to September 2025, a stark contrast to a surplus of 32,000 tons during the same period last year [2] - In September, the global refined zinc supply shortage reached 35,700 tons, with a year-on-year increase in the deficit of 20,000 tons [2] - The LME zinc spot price premium over futures contracts peaked at $323 per ton in October, indicating tightness in the overseas spot market [2] - Domestic zinc market conditions are relatively loose, with a 32.56% month-on-month decrease in zinc concentrate imports in October, but a cumulative increase of 36.59% year-on-year from January to October [2] Profitability and Production Trends - Domestic smelting enterprises are undergoing a profound shift in profitability, with losses in refined zinc production offset by strong prices for by-product sulfuric acid, maintaining overall profits in the range of -350 to 200 CNY per ton [3] - Zinc concentrate producers are achieving high profits of up to 5,500 CNY per ton, leading to a preference for using self-produced zinc concentrate and an increase in refined zinc exports, expected to rise significantly in November [3] Structural Changes in End-User Demand - The downstream zinc demand is experiencing notable structural differentiation, with varying impacts across different application sectors and regional markets [4] - The white goods sector is under pressure, with production of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines down 14.1% year-on-year as of December 2025 [4] - In contrast, the new energy vehicle sector is witnessing robust growth, with global sales increasing by 23% year-on-year in October, reaching 1.9 million units [4] - Investment demand in infrastructure and real estate remains weak, with infrastructure investment down 0.1% year-on-year and real estate development investment declining by 14.7% [4] Inventory and Market Conditions - Global zinc inventory changes further illustrate the market's divergent dynamics, with a 121% year-on-year increase in SHFE zinc warehouse receipts and a 4% decrease in domestic social inventory [5] - LME zinc inventory has significantly decreased by 80% year-on-year, despite a 40% month-on-month increase, indicating a historically low absolute level of 51,900 tons [5] Macroeconomic Influences - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut has risen again, providing liquidity support for the global commodity market, which is favorable for zinc price trends [6] Fundamental Support Factors - The combination of overseas smelting plant production cuts, declining processing fees, high spot premiums, and low inventories provides strong support for zinc prices [7] - The closure of the refined zinc import window and the opening of the export window in the domestic market is expected to accelerate the flow of domestic zinc products overseas, alleviating supply pressure abroad and supporting domestic prices [7]