财经随笔记：黄金今日行情走势要点分析（2025.11.28）

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing fluctuations with a strong upward bias, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and geopolitical uncertainties [2][4][6]. Fundamental Analysis - Strong expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts: The CME FedWatch tool indicates over 85% probability for a rate cut in December, with continued expectations for cuts through 2026 due to slowing U.S. economic growth and the potential successor to the Fed chair advocating for easing [2]. - Economic uncertainty and mixed consumer and investment demand: Online sales during Thanksgiving increased by 6% year-on-year, but overall holiday season sales growth slowed to 2.1%, reflecting a blend of weak consumer sentiment and economic resilience. This low growth environment may suppress inflation, creating conditions for rate cuts. Additionally, India's gold imports surged by 200% in October, indicating strong investment demand, supported by ongoing central bank purchases globally [2]. - Geopolitical risks add complexity: Progress in Ukraine peace talks faces core disagreements, and the intertwining of geopolitical uncertainty with expectations of over 90 basis points of Fed rate cuts in the next year and a half enhances gold's appeal as a safe haven [2]. Technical Analysis - Daily level: Gold showed a consolidating trend with a small bearish candle. The price broke out of a previous triangular consolidation pattern, with key support at the 5-day moving average around 4140-4145. If this support is breached, attention will shift to the 10-day moving average near 4105, while resistance is focused on the critical level of 4245 [4]. - Four-hour level: The overall trend remains unchanged, with a focus on the potential end of the fifth wave of the C-2-c structure. Recent price action has shown high-level fluctuations, with a trendline breakout. Short-term resistance is at 4173/4174, and if surpassed, the next focus will be on 4192/4193. Key support is identified at 4109, which, if broken, may indicate the completion of the C-2 wave and a potential shift to a C-3 downward phase [6].