Group 1: Lithium Carbonate Price Trends - Since mid-October, lithium carbonate futures prices have been on the rise, surpassing 100,000 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of over 30% [1] - The primary driver of this price increase is the unexpected growth in demand, shifting the market supply-demand balance from a surplus at the beginning of the year to a more balanced state, with expectations of tight balance continuing into 2026 [1] Group 2: New Energy Vehicle Demand - Despite expectations of subsidy reductions for new energy vehicles (NEVs) in 2026, demand remains robust, with NEV sales accounting for over 50% of total new car sales in October [2] - In October, NEV production and sales reached 1.772 million and 1.715 million units, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 21.1% and 20% [2] - Cumulatively, from January to October 2025, NEV production reached 12.992 million units, a year-on-year increase of 33%, with expectations of exceeding 16.8 million units for the entire year, reflecting a growth rate of over 30% [2] Group 3: Battery Production Growth - The production of power battery cells has been on a continuous upward trend since August, with October production reaching 124.87 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 10.9% [2] - Cumulatively, from January to October, the total production of power battery cells was 985.9 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 44%, with expectations of exceeding 1,250 GWh for the year, reflecting a growth rate of over 43% [2] Group 4: Energy Storage Industry Outlook - The energy storage battery sector remains optimistic, with expectations of 40% to 50% growth in the global energy storage industry in 2026, as indicated by leading companies [3] - In the first three quarters of 2025, global energy storage cell shipments reached 410.45 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 98.5%, with projections for total shipments in 2025 to exceed 560 GWh [3] - Preliminary estimates suggest that global energy storage cell shipments will approach 800 GWh in 2026, maintaining a high growth trajectory [3] Group 5: Inventory and Market Dynamics - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing a continuous destocking trend, with total inventory as of November 20 at 118,420 tons, a decrease of 2,052 tons from the previous month [5] - Compared to the peak inventory of 143,170 tons earlier in the year, there has been a cumulative reduction of 24,750 tons [5] - In the medium to long term, the tight supply-demand balance is expected to support a steady increase in lithium carbonate prices, despite potential short-term volatility due to market sentiment and policy adjustments [5]
供需面改善 碳酸锂价格重心将稳步上移
Qi Huo Ri Bao·2025-11-28 00:14