沪铜将再度挑战前高

Group 1 - The core driver of the recent copper price surge includes tight copper concentrate supply, rising expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and positive signals from US-China trade negotiations [1] - From September 24 to October 30, the main copper futures contract increased by nearly 12%, breaking through the 89,000 yuan/ton mark, reaching a historical high [1] - Following the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and internal disagreements regarding rate cuts in December, copper prices have been fluctuating between 85,000 and 88,000 yuan/ton [1][2] Group 2 - The US government faced a historic shutdown due to the failure to pass the 2026 fiscal budget, delaying the release of key labor market data [2] - The Federal Reserve implemented a rate cut without data support, leading to uncertainty about future rate cuts, which contributed to copper price volatility [2] - After the government shutdown ended, significant labor market data was released, but the Federal Reserve's stance on December rate cuts remained cautious [2] Group 3 - The copper concentrate supply tightness has worsened this year, with the treatment charge (TC) dropping from around $6 per dry ton at the beginning of the year to approximately -$42 per dry ton [4] - Several mining disruptions have occurred, including a 25% year-on-year production drop at Chile's Codelco and a complete shutdown at Indonesia's Grasberg mine due to landslides [4] - The Chinese Copper Smelters' Joint Negotiation Group (CSPT) has called for domestic smelters to reduce production in response to low processing fees [4] Group 4 - Since August, the price spread between refined copper and scrap copper has strengthened, currently operating in the range of 7,500 to 8,500 yuan/ton, which has suppressed the demand for refined copper [5] - The utilization rates of downstream products such as copper pipes, rods, and foils are running weak, with real estate adjustments contributing to a marginal decline in refined copper demand [5] - Despite the weak demand outlook for the year, the energy storage sector in 2026 is expected to boost refined copper demand [5]