Core Viewpoint - The copper market has experienced a significant price increase, driven by tight supply of copper concentrate, rising expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and positive signals from US-China trade negotiations [1][4]. Group 1: Copper Price Movement - From September 24 to October 30, the main copper contract rose nearly 12%, surpassing 89,000 yuan/ton, reaching a historical high [1]. - Following a hawkish stance from Powell and increasing internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve regarding rate cuts, copper prices have fluctuated between 85,000 and 88,000 yuan/ton since November [1][2]. Group 2: Federal Reserve and Economic Data - The US government faced a historic shutdown due to the failure to pass the 2026 fiscal budget, delaying the release of key labor market data [2]. - The Federal Reserve implemented a "blind cut" in October without supporting data, and subsequent hawkish comments from Powell diminished expectations for a December rate cut [2][3]. - The end of the government shutdown in mid-November allowed the Labor Statistics Bureau to report a significant increase in September's non-farm employment, but the October report was not released, leading to uncertainty about the Fed's December decisions [2][3]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The tight supply of copper concentrate has worsened this year, with the treatment charge (TC) dropping from around $6 per dry ton at the beginning of the year to approximately -$42 per dry ton [4]. - Several mines have faced production disruptions, including a 25% year-on-year decline in output from Chile's Codelco and significant impacts from natural disasters and social unrest in Indonesia and Peru [4]. - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper has strengthened, currently running between 7,500 and 8,500 yuan/ton, which has suppressed demand for refined copper products [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The probability of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve remains high, contributing to a more relaxed global liquidity environment [5]. - The ongoing tight supply of copper concentrate is expected to persist, potentially leading to coordinated production cuts by smelters to pressure mines to increase TC [5]. - While demand has weakened this year, the energy storage sector in 2026 is anticipated to boost demand for refined copper, suggesting a future supply-demand imbalance may widen [5].
沪铜 将再度挑战前高
Qi Huo Ri Bao·2025-11-28 00:34