流动性如此充裕时，美股会有调整，但不会有熊市

Core Viewpoint - Simon White, a macro strategist at Bloomberg, believes that despite recent market volatility, a bear market is unlikely due to the current liquidity environment [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Recent declines in U.S. stock indices, approximately 5% from recent highs, have led to concerns about a potential market crash [1]. - White argues that the current downturn is merely a temporary correction rather than the onset of a long-term bear market, supported by a "loose" liquidity backdrop from government fiscal policies and Federal Reserve actions [1]. Group 2: Fiscal Support Mechanisms - The concept of "Fiscal Put" is highlighted, where the Treasury uses specific debt issuance strategies to inject liquidity into the market [2]. - Historical data indicates that when net bill issuance rises relative to the fiscal deficit, stock market returns tend to be favorable, with 1-month forward returns aligning with average levels and longer-term returns exceeding average levels [2]. Group 3: Federal Reserve's Role - The Federal Reserve's stance is crucial, with recent comments from New York Fed President John Williams suggesting there is still room for interest rate cuts, which positively impacted market sentiment [3]. - White emphasizes the importance of "Excess Liquidity" as a safety net for risk assets, currently reading at +0.9, indicating limited downside risk for the stock market [3]. Group 4: Temporary Funding Pressures - Recent market weakness has been attributed to tightening "Funding Liquidity," but White reassures that this is a short-term issue [4]. - Historical precedents show that past liquidity pressures have not led to significant market downturns, and indicators suggest a potential easing of funding pressures in the near future [4]. Group 5: Market Consensus and Future Outlook - There is a prevailing consensus that the market will undergo adjustments, but White cautions against blindly following popular strategies [5]. - The current market structure shows a shift towards value stocks outperforming growth stocks and defensive sectors leading over cyclical ones, which is not typical of a robust bull market [5]. - Overall, while the liquidity environment suggests low probabilities for a systemic collapse or bear market, it does not guarantee a rapid return to a bullish trend [5].