Wells Fargo(US:WFC) Jin Shi Shu Ju·2025-11-28 00:50Core Viewpoint - The conditions for gold's next phase of growth are strong due to factors such as potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, high uncertainty, a weakening dollar, and a pullback in cryptocurrencies [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The long-term bull market for gold remains intact, with expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, possibly as early as December or January [2]. - The potential appointment of Kevin Hassett as the successor to Jerome Powell could lead to a more dovish Fed stance, aiming for interest rates around 2%, which would reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold [2]. - A decrease in real interest rates is expected to support gold prices [2]. Group 2: Dollar Dynamics - The dollar index has dropped nearly 15% from 110 points to 96 points, with only a 3-4% rebound, indicating a bearish outlook for the dollar [3]. - It is believed that the dollar will struggle to strengthen significantly from current levels [4]. Group 3: Investment Trends - There is a growing trend of diversification in investments, with gold emerging as a core diversification tool amid high inflation and the Fed's decision to cut rates despite inflation being above 3% [5]. - The relative weakness of gold's strongest competitors, such as AI stocks and cryptocurrencies, is expected to support gold prices [5]. - The high correlation among global stocks, particularly AI-related stocks, limits their effectiveness as a diversification strategy [6]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Despite expectations of a weak labor market and economic slowdown until early 2026, the market has already priced in these negative factors, with only a minor potential pullback of 5-10% anticipated [8]. - The structural logic for gold's rise is reinforced by the Fed's potential shift in focus from inflation to the labor market, which could pressure bonds and lead investors to seek alternative diversification channels like gold [8]. - Central banks are increasingly considering reducing their dollar asset holdings, continuing a trend that began around 2022 due to geopolitical tensions [8].