张尧浠：美联储降息预期前景守护、金价震荡蓄力待攀升

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market is experiencing a short-term bullish trend, supported by expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, with market probabilities exceeding 85% for such a move [5][6]. Market Performance - On November 27, gold opened at $4163.23 per ounce, reached a high of $4168.54, and a low of $4142.52, ultimately closing at $4159.46, reflecting a slight decline of $3.77 or 0.09% [1]. - The trading volume was low due to the Thanksgiving holiday, but the overall trend remains bullish [1][3]. Economic Factors - The slowdown in the U.S. economy is a key driver for a weaker dollar, enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [6]. - The potential appointment of a new Federal Reserve chair who advocates for rate cuts could further bolster market expectations for a dovish outlook, supporting gold prices [6]. Technical Analysis - Weekly charts indicate that gold prices have been adjusting but are showing higher lows and have not breached the 10-week moving average, suggesting a bullish momentum [8]. - Short-term targets for gold are set at $4300 and $4400, with support levels identified at $4155 and $4130 [10][11]. Long-term Outlook - The long-term trend for gold remains positive, with expectations of a new bull market driven by low interest rates and economic uncertainty [6]. - Historical patterns suggest that any pullbacks during a rate-cutting cycle present buying opportunities, with a target of $5000 per ounce in the future [6].