新一轮牛市已在路上？华尔街纷纷给美股定下高目标价

Core Viewpoint - The rapid development of artificial intelligence is reshaping the economy and financial markets, leading to bold stock market predictions, including a target of 8000 points for the S&P 500 index by 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Bullish Predictions for U.S. Stocks - Deutsche Bank has set a year-end target of 8000 points for the S&P 500 index by 2026, citing stronger capital inflows, buyback activities, and sustained earnings growth [2][3]. - As of the latest close, the S&P 500 index stood at 6812.61 points, indicating a potential upside of 17% based on Deutsche Bank's forecast [3]. - Other banks, such as HSBC and JPMorgan, have set their targets at 7500 points, with JPMorgan suggesting that if the Federal Reserve continues to cut rates, the upper limit could also reach 8000 points [3][4]. Group 2: Earnings Growth and Economic Outlook - The earnings growth for S&P 500 companies was particularly strong, with a reported increase of 13.4% in Q3, according to FactSet data [3]. - Morgan Stanley anticipates a strong performance for U.S. stocks in the coming year, projecting the S&P 500 index to reach 7800 points by the end of 2026 [3][4]. - Wells Fargo expects U.S. stocks to rise by double digits over the next 12 months, with a target of 7800 points for 2026, driven by a shift towards AI-based growth [4]. Group 3: Economic Disparities and Risks - Wells Fargo warns that the current economic environment, characterized by a "K-shaped economy," could lead to a recession if a bear market occurs, as the wealth gap widens [4][5]. - JPMorgan also notes that the expected high valuations reflect above-trend earnings growth and increased capital expenditures related to AI, despite concerns about potential bubbles [5][6]. - The economic transformation driven by AI is occurring within a polarized economic context, which may exacerbate existing disparities [6][7].