金荣中国：美联储12月降息预期持续升温，金价单边上行破位走高

Market Overview - International gold maintained a volatile trend on Thursday, with an opening price of $4165.36 per ounce, a high of $4171.57, a low of $4142.63, and a closing price of $4157.93 [1] Economic News - Due to the Thanksgiving holiday, economic data was scarce. The European Central Bank's meeting minutes indicated a consensus among most members to maintain current interest rates, acknowledging potential upward or downward inflation data. The majority believe the "rate cut cycle has ended" based on current economic performance [2] - The ECB members noted that inflation risks are bidirectional, influenced by global trade policy instability and geopolitical risks, with expectations that inflation may drop below 2% by 2026 but will likely rebound towards target levels thereafter [2] Geopolitical Situation - Russian President Putin stated that peace agreements require the immediate lifting of wartime status and the initiation of elections, asserting that Ukraine currently lacks the legal framework to sign binding documents. He emphasized that negotiations with Ukraine's leadership are currently meaningless [4] - Upcoming talks between U.S. and Ukrainian representatives are expected, but significant disagreements remain on key issues such as territorial disputes and military personnel limits [4] Gold Market Insights - The largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, held 1045.43 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is 86.9%, with a 13.1% chance of maintaining current rates [5] - Gold prices are expected to continue rising, with a cautious approach to buying on dips recommended. The market is currently experiencing a bullish trend, with short-term price movements indicating strong upward momentum [8][9]