中美巴大豆战：中国硬吞600元差价，豆粕大涨3050元，玄机是啥？

Core Insights - In a strategic move, Chinese grain companies purchased nearly 1.6 million tons of U.S. soybeans within three days, breaking a six-month trade freeze with the U.S. and driving U.S. soybean prices to a 15-month high [1][3] Pricing and Cost Analysis - The landed price of the U.S. soybeans was between 4,419 and 4,465 yuan per ton, while Brazilian soybeans were priced around 3,817 yuan, resulting in a price difference of over 600 yuan per ton, costing Chinese buyers nearly 1 billion yuan [3][5] - The price disparity is attributed to a significant supply gap, as Brazil can only supply about 4 million tons to China, while the monthly demand for soybeans in China is between 8 to 9 million tons [3][5] Strategic Implications - The purchase is part of a broader strategy following a meeting between U.S. and Chinese leaders, where China committed to purchasing 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans by the end of 2025, with an annual minimum of 25 million tons over the next three years [5][7] - This order is crucial for U.S. soybean farmers, as they faced severe inventory issues and a 57% increase in farm bankruptcies over the past year [5][7] Market Reactions - Following the confirmation of the purchase, soybean futures on the Chicago exchange rose nearly 3%, marking a 17-month high [5][7] - The domestic market reacted quickly, with soybean meal futures increasing by 1.92% and a surge in demand for soybean meal ETFs, which saw 53.9 million yuan in purchases within five days [7][10] Supply Chain Considerations - U.S. soybeans generally have a higher protein content (35.8%) compared to Brazilian soybeans, which can lead to better economic benefits for feed manufacturers, estimated at 50-80 yuan per ton [7][10] - The U.S. supply chain is viewed as more stable and reliable compared to Brazil, which faces disruptions due to weather and logistics [7][10] Future Outlook - Current soybean inventories in China are approximately 9.5 million tons, indicating that the large-scale purchase is more about strategic positioning rather than immediate supply shortages [10] - The recent procurement represents about 13% of China's 12 million ton target for U.S. soybeans by the end of 2025, allowing for flexibility in future purchases based on market conditions [10]