金价震荡攀升，黄金基金ETF（518800）10日吸金超10亿元

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the recent rise in gold prices is driven by multiple factors, including expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, improved liquidity, and heightened geopolitical risks [2][3][4] - As of the latest data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has increased from 32% to 85%, influenced by comments from Fed officials regarding a potential need for rate cuts due to a weak labor market [2][3] - The demand for gold has been further supported by improved liquidity conditions, as the U.S. government has reopened and the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance has decreased, leading to a decline in the secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) [3] Group 2 - Central banks globally have been increasing their gold purchases, with a net purchase of 220 tons in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a 30% increase year-on-year, indicating strong long-term support for gold prices [5] - Emerging market central banks are leading the charge in gold purchases, with Brazil's central bank being the largest buyer in September and South Korea signaling plans to increase gold holdings for the first time since 2013 [5][6] - China's central bank has also been increasing its gold reserves for 12 consecutive months, with a total of 74.09 million ounces as of the end of October, suggesting potential for further increases given its current low percentage of gold reserves compared to global averages [6] Group 3 - The weakening credit of the U.S. dollar due to high debt levels is prompting countries to reduce dollar assets and increase gold reserves, enhancing gold's appeal as a non-credit asset [7] - Global economic uncertainties, including stagnation in the Eurozone and ongoing geopolitical tensions, are driving consistent demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [7] - Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price forecast for December 2026 to $4,900 per ounce, citing strong demand from central banks and private sector diversification as key factors supporting this outlook [7]