人民币汇率创逾一年新高，年内涨幅达千基点

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan has strengthened against the US dollar, reaching a new high since October 2024, with the central parity rate reported at 7.0796, an increase of 30 basis points from the previous trading day, and a cumulative rise of approximately 1000 basis points this year [1]. Exchange Rate Performance - The offshore and onshore yuan both surpassed 7.09 against the US dollar on November 25, marking a new high in over a year. On November 26, both rates further strengthened, with the onshore yuan peaking at 7.0788 and the offshore yuan reaching 7.07595, the highest levels since mid-October 2024 [2]. - The CFETS yuan index reached 98.22, the BIS yuan index was at 104.66, and the SDR yuan index stood at 92.60, all reflecting a significant increase [2]. Reasons for Strength - The yuan's strength is attributed to multiple factors, including a positive domestic economic outlook, strong foreign trade performance, and increased capital market activity since July, which has boosted demand for yuan [3]. - The weakening of the US dollar, influenced by disappointing retail sales and signs of a softening labor market, has also contributed to the yuan's appreciation [3]. Market Expectations - Market sentiment remains optimistic regarding the yuan's exchange rate, with expectations of continued strength in the short term. Analysts predict a stable trend with limited volatility against the US dollar, and a low likelihood of rapid appreciation above 7.0 before year-end [4]. - The demand for yuan is expected to remain balanced as the year-end approaches, with potential for moderate strength in the exchange rate [4]. Policy Factors - The People's Bank of China emphasizes a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand, aiming to maintain the yuan's stability at a reasonable level [5]. - Factors such as economic recovery, stable US-China trade relations, and potential US Federal Reserve rate cuts are anticipated to positively influence the yuan's exchange rate in 2026 [5]. Global Context - The global foreign exchange market is undergoing significant changes, with the US dollar index rising while the yuan has appreciated independently against it. The year-end seasonal peak in currency settlement is expected to provide additional upward momentum for the yuan [7]. - Improved risk management practices among businesses and the increasing importance of price mechanisms in balancing market supply and demand are expected to further solidify the yuan's stability [7].