Juno markets 外匯：美国经济数据降温，美联储下一步是降息吗？

Group 1 - The recent performance of the US dollar remains weak, with the dollar index fluctuating around 99.50, reflecting market expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut at the December Federal Reserve meeting have surged to over 87%, up from 39% a week prior, indicating a significant shift in sentiment [3] - Initial jobless claims in the US fell to 216,000 for the week ending November 22, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week, outperforming market expectations [3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for September increased by 2.7% year-on-year, consistent with expectations, while the core PPI declined from 2.9% to 2.6%, slightly below market forecasts [3] - Retail sales in September grew by 0.2% month-on-month, a slowdown from the 0.6% increase in August, indicating a more cautious consumer spending attitude [3] - The consumer confidence index for November dropped by 6.8 points to 88.7, reflecting a notable decline in household sentiment [3] - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller emphasized a focus on labor market performance and indicated that inflation is "not a major issue," suggesting an openness to rate cuts [3] Group 2 - In Australia, private capital expenditure rose by 6.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, significantly higher than the 0.2% growth in Q2 and above market expectations of 0.5% [4] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Australia for October increased by 3.8% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations of 3.6% [4] - The preliminary manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for November in Australia was 51.6, up from 49.7, indicating expansion in the manufacturing sector [4] - The services PMI increased from 52.5 to 52.7, and the composite PMI rose from 52.1 to 52.6, suggesting ongoing economic activity expansion [4] - The Reserve Bank of Australia indicated a balanced policy stance in its November meeting minutes, suggesting that strong economic data could lead to an extended period of current interest rates [4]