德银：预测美元明年面临下跌10%的风险，十年牛市周期或将终结

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank predicts that the US dollar will weaken further by 2026, with a projected decline of 10% in the trade-weighted dollar by the end of next year, indicating the end of a long dollar bull market cycle this decade [1] Group 1: Dollar Weakness Forecast - Analysts, including George Saravelos and Tim Baker, expect a slower pace of dollar weakening compared to this year [1] - The impact of former President Trump's return in early 2025 is believed to have ended, but factors such as valuation, international balance of payments dynamics, and relative monetary policy cycles support continued gradual dollar weakness [1] Group 2: Impact of AI on Dollar - The report discusses the influence of the AI boom on the dollar, identifying it as a variable that could drive bilateral risks for the currency [1] - On the optimistic side, sustained progress in AI could lead to higher growth rates and capital inflows, supporting the dollar [1] - Conversely, if the benefits of AI are realized outside the US, it could enhance global productivity and exert pressure on the dollar [1] Group 3: Potential Leadership Changes - The possibility of Kevin Hassett, an economic advisor inclined towards aggressive rate cuts, becoming the next Federal Reserve Chair could also put pressure on the dollar [1]