美股年线或剑指“四连涨”，双位数涨幅还能延续吗？

Group 1 - CFRA's Chief Investment Strategist Sam Stovall believes the stock market will overcome recent volatility and maintain an upward trend next year, with the S&P 500 index expected to reach 7400 points by the end of 2026, marking a fourth consecutive year of double-digit growth [1] - The S&P 500 index is projected to have a year-end target of 7000 points for 2025, driven by record gains in the AI sector, with all three major indices expected to achieve at least a 10% increase this year [1] - Stovall anticipates that 2025 could be another fruitful year for the U.S. stock market, defying expectations of the S&P 500 index failing to achieve a "three-peat" of double-digit growth [1] Group 2 - The expected earnings growth for the S&P 500 index is 10.9% in 2025, 13.4% in 2026, and 14.2% in 2027, with all sectors projected to see earnings growth in 2026, particularly non-essential consumer goods, industrials, information technology, and materials, which are expected to achieve double-digit growth [2] - Stovall remains overweight on three sectors within the S&P 500 index, including financials, which are expected to benefit from declining interest rates, narrowing credit spreads, a potential rebound in M&A activity, and improved credit quality [2] - The communication services sector is expected to benefit from the ongoing shift to digital advertising, as well as upcoming events such as the midterm elections, Winter Olympics, and World Cup in 2026 [2] Group 3 - Bank of America does not expect another explosive year for the S&P 500 index, projecting it to rise to 7100 points by 2026 [2] - Earnings are expected to be the primary driver of the S&P 500 index's increase in 2026, with a forecasted earnings growth of 14%, although a contraction in the price-to-earnings ratio by 10 basis points may limit the index's growth [3] - In a bear market scenario, the S&P 500 index could drop to 5500 points, while in a bull market scenario, it could soar to 8500 points, indicating a potential slowdown in growth compared to recent historical performance [3]