贸易协议没救？IMF下调印度明年GDP预测

Core Insights - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised India's economic growth outlook downwards, indicating a cautious stance due to ongoing trade tensions with the United States [1][3] - Despite the Indian government's emphasis on a forthcoming trade agreement aimed at reducing tariffs, the IMF remains skeptical about the short-term alleviation of high tariffs imposed by the U.S. [1][3] Economic Growth Forecast - The IMF projects India's economic growth rate for the fiscal year starting April next year to be 6.2%, a decrease from the previous forecast of 6.4% made in July [3] - For the current fiscal year, the IMF maintains a growth forecast of 6.6%, reflecting better-than-expected economic performance from April to June and positive effects from the Goods and Services Tax reform [3] - The sustainability of this economic resilience is uncertain, raising questions about how long it can last [3] Trade and Tariff Implications - High tariffs imposed by the U.S. on Indian goods are identified as a major uncertainty for the upcoming year [3] - The outcome of ongoing trade negotiations between India and the U.S. remains uncertain, with significant variables that could affect the removal of these trade barriers [3] - Overall, while India's growth has not stalled, the outlook has become less optimistic [3]