日本东京通胀超预期，日央行12月加息概率猛增?

Core Viewpoint - Tokyo's inflation in November exceeded expectations, indicating a potential steady progression of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan in the coming months [1][13][21]. Inflation Data - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Tokyo rose by 2.8% year-on-year in November, surpassing the Bank of Japan's target of 2% and slightly above the forecast of 2.7%, remaining unchanged from the previous month [4][21]. - Food prices, excluding fresh produce, increased by 6.5%, marking the third consecutive month of slowing growth [6][21]. - Energy prices rose by 2.6%, with electricity costs up 4.5% year-on-year and city gas prices up 0.7% [7][21]. Economic Indicators - Retail sales in Japan for October increased by 1.7% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 0.8% [10]. - Industrial output for October showed a preliminary month-on-month increase of 1.4%, against an expected decline of 0.6% [11]. - The unemployment rate remained stable at 2.6%, aligning with expectations [12]. Government and Monetary Policy - The Japanese government plans to implement an economic stimulus package exceeding 20 trillion yen to address rising living costs [13]. - The government is expected to issue approximately 11.7 trillion yen (about 529.9 billion RMB) in new bonds to cover the spending gap from the stimulus plan [14]. - Analysts from Goldman Sachs suggest that the impact of this large-scale fiscal stimulus may be "far below expectations" [14]. Market Expectations - The recent inflation data is likely to bolster the Bank of Japan's confidence in raising interest rates [17]. - Market speculation regarding a potential interest rate hike in December has intensified, driven by the ongoing tight labor market and core inflation rates expected to remain above 3% [21][22].